SternBets MLB Next Day Preview, Friday June 6th

Early Lines and intentions before writing the article to get a jump on the best lines available

Hey everyone welcome to my early preview/ premium newsletter. This is a jack-o-box where I try to provide value to my paid subscribers, but will also always provide a nugget for free as well. All my official MLB plays are free either on social media (Twitter/ X, Bluesky, & Discords- I post everything on all 3) or on my main MLB newsletter that usually gets published usually the morning of the games. I will often copy my notes on games that I am targeting for tomorrow and maybe how I am thinking of attacking that game before doing my full research. Sometimes I will have played an early line to get the best juice or just include why I am laying off a particular game, despite it looking very attractive initially. I will often also include some other plays that I am playing myself, but are unofficial picks due to them either being other sports outside baseball, MLB leans at smaller unit sizes, or other experts picks that I feel comfortable sharing. I hope this is useful and helpful as I try to find value to everyone! I hope we have an incredible experience going through these games together and look forward to watching so many special moments in sports to come!

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The Picks

Wow not my best run of things lately, but I am slowing down and focusing on my system. I absolutely love all 3 plus money plays today, although just maybe the New York teams just a bit more. Lets turn it around going into the weekend!

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees 7:05 PM

Yankees -1.5 (+120) ESPN

I like Will Warren (RHP 3-3, 5.19 ERA) to bounce-back against the Red Sox after getting hit up by the Dodgers. He has really been coming around before that blow-up spot and while I don't love his core metrics of a barrel rate at 10.2% to a hard-hit rate of 50.4%, his whiff rate of 29.5% converting to a 29.7% strikeout rate will do him good against the worst strikeout team on the road who are averaging 10.32 strikeouts per game. His expected metrics aren't so bad either with a xwOBA of .319, xBA .250, and xSLG at .396. On the other side of the mound for the Red Sox is Walker Buehler (RHP 4-3, 4.44 ERA) who is also coming off of a rough outing, but his is a little more frequent. His core metrics include a barrel rate of 10.2% to a hard-hit rate at 36.5% and a whiff rate of 19.7% converting to a 21.2% strikeout rate. His expected stats are an xwOBA of .333, xBA .261, and xSLG at .434 which are solidly below Warrens and I think the Yankees can take advantage. Red Sox are 8th worst in runs scored on the road in the last 4 innings, averaging just 1.58 runs, while Yankees are 3rd in runs scored in the last 4 innings averaging 2.28. Overall the Red Sox are just much worse on the road averaging just 4.19 runs per game, compared to their 5.24 runs scored at home. The Yankees are just a better team and rank 3rd overall averaging 5.31 runs per game at home. I like the Yankees to get ahead and stay ahead in this one, Go Yankees!

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